Alpha Trader #8 - Talking tariffs, holiday sales, and OPEC at Alpha Trader

The eight episode of Alpha Trader features longtime energy trader Bob Iaccino of Path Trading Partners. Asked to handicap this week's OPEC meeting, Iaccino doesn't expect additional production cuts (nor does he see the cooperation for cuts in the future). One reason is OPEC's dwindling influence over the global crude market. He notes the previous cut had little effect, and OPEC likely realizes it would take a drastic reduction to really move prices higher. Another reason is the Saudi Aramco IPO - the company is now answerable to shareholders instead of The Kingdom, and is likely to have greater focus on things like profits and dividends. On whether the beat-up energy sector (XLE) might be a good investment, Iaccino isn't so sure. Not "big on correlations," Iaccino believes that if you've got an opinion on crude oil, you ought to be trading crude oil futures, not energy names, nor ETFs like [[USO]]. Prior to chatting with Iaccino, Task and Alpher talk about Monday's tariff news - first the president re-imposing tariffs on Brazil and Argentina, and then Commerce Secretary Ross reiterating that December 15 is the deadline for China to make a deal or face higher tariffs. If 2019 has been the year when companies were able to sail past the difficult tariff news, will 2020 be the year when higher costs catch up? The Fed meets this week, and isn't expected to continue with the rate cut cycle - news that surely won't sit well with the president. The central bank takes heat from everyone, but with the end of rate cuts (for now), it's worth considering whether the Fed has accomplished the so-called "soft landing." Speaking of the economy, the early overall holiday sales picture is looking strong, with the online juggernaut continuing, but retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) adjusting very well, particularly with their in-store pickup initiatives. Amazon (AMZN) has been the category killer, but if Walmart and Target - with their well-located real estate - are going to become distribution centers, perhaps the onus is now on the House of Bezos to adjust.